Q3 Is Pivotal - Bank & Finance in bengaluru, karnataka

Hey guys I’m on the road this week so apologies for keeping this one briefer than usual.

Rather than our usual intro let’s dive directly into the charts today and get straight and to the point of what you need to know as we head into what will be a pivotal Q3…

And if there is hope to be found for a better performance than we witnessed in Q2 it seems to rest solely on the shoulders of ETH and its upcoming spot ETF listing, which could potentially go live as soon as July 4th.

So without further ado let’s take a look at how the market is positioning itself.

BTC Overhang

Though this week we found out we’re potentially only days away from the listing of ETH’s spot ETF, that headline was not the primary driver of this week’s price action.

Unlike in May when the sudden change of stance by the SEC sparked a rally back towards year-to-date highs, the market moving news of this week was the seemingly endless supply overhang currently facing BTC.

With the perfect storm of miner capitulation, US and German governments selling hundreds of millions worth of Bitcoin, and the upcoming unlock of previously dormant Mt. Gox supply, it’s hard to envision the market regaining the momentum it lost in June.

We can see this in the data. The BVIV 30-day implied volatility index has continued its descent back towards January levels. We can thank the overhang of spot supply shattering the market’s expectation of a rally back above $70k in the near future.